Estonia vs Italy

World Cup - Qualification Europe prediction, odds, stats and match analysis.

16 Jun 2026
11 Oct 2025 18:45
WORLD WORLD CUP - QUALIFICATION EUROPE GROUP STAGE - 7
Estonia
W D W L W
FT
1 - 3
Italy
L D L W W
🏟️ A. Le Coq Arena
Tallinn
Referee: S. Gozubuyuk

Match Events

Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from this fixture.

Estonia 1 - 3 Italy
Estonia Timeline Italy
1st Half 0 - 2
4'
0 - 1
M. Kean Assist: F. Dimarco
12'
Nicolò Barella yellow card
15'
M. Kean ↔ F. Esposito Substitution
29'
Märten Kuusk yellow card
38'
0 - 2
M. Retegui Assist: R. Orsolini
41'
Kevor Palumets yellow card
2nd Half 1 - 1
46'
K. Palumets ↔ M. Schjonning-Larsen Substitution
46'
J. Saliste ↔ V. Sinyavskiy Substitution
59'
Rasmus Peetson yellow card
62'
A. Tamm ↔ R. Sappinen Substitution
62'
M. Kuusk ↔ K. Mets Substitution
62'
G. Raspadori ↔ L. Spinazzola Substitution
62'
R. Orsolini ↔ A. Cambiaso Substitution
72'
Alessandro Bastoni yellow card
74'
0 - 3
F. Esposito Assist: L. Spinazzola
76'
R. Sappinen normal goal
1 - 3
78'
M. Retegui ↔ B. Cristante Substitution
78'
N. Barella ↔ D. Frattesi Substitution
83'
R. R. Shein ↔ K. Mustmaa Substitution
84'
Andrea Cambiaso yellow card
87'
Vlasiy Sinyavskiy yellow card

All Predictions Markets

AI-powered match picks, confidence ratings and value signals.

AI Model · Pro v3.1
No predictions available for this match.
🧠

AI Insight Summary

No strong prediction signal is available for this match yet.

Confidence 0% Low
Best Odds - Fair Odds
Value Edge +0% Expected Value
📊

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

23 matches analysed
Estonia
Estonia Home
VS
Italy Away
Italy
🎟️ 11 Matches Played
🏆 2 Wins
🎯 0.73 Avg Goals
🎟️ 12 Matches Played
🏆 7 Wins
🎯 2.42 Avg Goals
11
Matches Played
12
2
Wins
7
1
Draws
2
8
Losses
3
8
Goals For
29
22
Goals Against
20
0.73
Avg Goals Scored
2.42
2
Avg Goals Conceded
1.67
4
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
10
1
Clean Sheets
3
7
Failed To Score
1

Key Stats

Quick comparison based on available match data

0.73
Average Goals Scored
2.42
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.67
4
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
10
3.2
Shots on Goal
7

Trend Signals

Derived from season data
Attack Edge Italy
Defensive Edge Italy
BTTS Signal Lower BTTS profile
Goals Trend Lower-scoring trend

Quick Verdict

Pre-match summary
Home Win Rate 18%
Away Win Rate 58%

Italy show the stronger season trend before kickoff.

Estonia Estonia

Match Statistics

Italy Italy
1
🎯 Shots on Goal
9
1
Shots off Goal
8
0
🛡️ Blocked Shots
7
0
🚩 Corner Kicks
8
22
🦶 Fouls
9
36%
Ball Possession
64%
2
Total Shots
24
325
Total passes
579
247
Passes accurate
507
4
🟨 Yellow Cards
3
0
🟥 Red Cards
0
Last matches: Estonia
13.11.25
Wor
Estonia
Norway
1
4
L
14.10.25
Wor
Estonia
Moldova
1
1
D
05.09.25
Wor
Estonia
Italy
0
5
L
09.06.25
Wor
Estonia
Norway
0
1
L
06.06.25
Wor
Estonia
Israel
1
3
L
25.03.25
Wor
Estonia
Moldova
3
2
W
22.03.25
Wor
Estonia
Israel
1
2
L
19.11.24
UEF
Estonia
Slovakia
0
1
L
16.11.24
UEF
Estonia
Azerbaijan
0
0
D
14.10.24
UEF
Estonia
Sweden
0
3
L
11.10.24
UEF
Estonia
Azerbaijan
3
1
W
08.09.24
UEF
Estonia
Sweden
0
3
L
05.09.24
UEF
Estonia
Slovakia
0
1
L
Last matches: Italy
07.06.26
Fri
Italy
Greece
1
0
W
03.06.26
Fri
Italy
Luxembourg
1
0
W
31.03.26
Wor
Italy
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1
1
D
26.03.26
Wor
Italy
Northern Ireland
2
0
W
16.11.25
Wor
Italy
Norway
1
4
L
13.11.25
Wor
Italy
Moldova
2
0
W
14.10.25
Wor
Italy
Israel
3
0
W
08.09.25
Wor
Italy
Israel
5
4
W
05.09.25
Wor
Italy
Estonia
5
0
W
09.06.25
Wor
Italy
Moldova
2
0
W
06.06.25
Wor
Italy
Norway
0
3
L
23.03.25
UEF
Italy
Germany
3
3
D
20.03.25
UEF
Italy
Germany
1
2
L
17.11.24
UEF
Italy
France
1
3
L
14.11.24
UEF
Italy
Belgium
1
0
W
14.10.24
UEF
Italy
Israel
4
1
W
10.10.24
UEF
Italy
Belgium
2
2
D
09.09.24
UEF
Italy
Israel
2
1
W
06.09.24
UEF
Italy
France
3
1
W
H2H: Estonia vs Italy
11.10.25
H2H
Estonia
Italy
1
3
L
05.09.25
H2H
Italy
Estonia
5
0
L
11.11.20
H2H
Italy
Estonia
4
0
L
Last matches: Estonia
14.10.25
Wor
Estonia
Moldova
1
1
D
09.06.25
Wor
Estonia
Norway
0
1
L
06.06.25
Wor
Estonia
Israel
1
3
L
14.10.24
UEF
Estonia
Sweden
0
3
L
11.10.24
UEF
Estonia
Azerbaijan
3
1
W
05.09.24
UEF
Estonia
Slovakia
0
1
L
H2H at home: Estonia
11.10.25
H2H
Estonia
Italy
1
3
L
Last matches: Italy
07.06.26
Fri
Italy
Greece
1
0
W
03.06.26
Fri
Italy
Luxembourg
1
0
W
31.03.26
Wor
Italy
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1
1
D
13.11.25
Wor
Italy
Moldova
2
0
W
08.09.25
Wor
Italy
Israel
5
4
W
06.06.25
Wor
Italy
Norway
0
3
L
23.03.25
UEF
Italy
Germany
3
3
D
14.11.24
UEF
Italy
Belgium
1
0
W
09.09.24
UEF
Italy
Israel
2
1
W
06.09.24
UEF
Italy
France
3
1
W
H2H away: Italy
11.10.25
H2H
Estonia
Italy
1
3
W
Italy
Italy 3-4-2-1
Lineups 3-4-2-1 vs 4-5-1
Estonia 4-5-1 estimated
Estonia
1
G. Donnarumma
22
G. Di Lorenzo
21
A. Bastoni
🟨
13
R. Calafiori
7
R. Orsolini
🎯
18
N. Barella
🟨
8
S. Tonali
3
F. Dimarco
🎯
11
M. Kean
10
G. Raspadori
9
M. Retegui
1
K. Hein
6
R. Peetson
🟨
13
M. Paskotsi
2
M. Kuusk
🟨
3
J. Saliste
10
K. Palumets
🟨
8
M. Soomets
4
M. Kait
5
R. R. Shein
7
R. Saarma
21
A. Tamm
Italy Estonia ⚽ Goal 🎯 Assist 🟨 Yellow 🟥 Red ↑ In ↓ Out

Group I Standings

# Team MP GD PTS Form
1
Norway
8 32 24
W W W W W
2
Italy
8 9 18
L W W W W
3
Israel
8 -1 12
W L L L W
4
Estonia
8 -13 4
L D L L L
5
Moldova
8 -27 1
L L D L L
Promotion - World Cup
Promotion - World Cup (Promotion)

Match Events

Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from this fixture.

Estonia 1 - 3 Italy
Estonia Timeline Italy
1st Half 0 - 2
4'
0 - 1
M. Kean Assist: F. Dimarco
12'
Nicolò Barella yellow card
15'
M. Kean ↔ F. Esposito Substitution
29'
Märten Kuusk yellow card
38'
0 - 2
M. Retegui Assist: R. Orsolini
41'
Kevor Palumets yellow card
2nd Half 1 - 1
46'
K. Palumets ↔ M. Schjonning-Larsen Substitution
46'
J. Saliste ↔ V. Sinyavskiy Substitution
59'
Rasmus Peetson yellow card
62'
A. Tamm ↔ R. Sappinen Substitution
62'
M. Kuusk ↔ K. Mets Substitution
62'
G. Raspadori ↔ L. Spinazzola Substitution
62'
R. Orsolini ↔ A. Cambiaso Substitution
72'
Alessandro Bastoni yellow card
74'
0 - 3
F. Esposito Assist: L. Spinazzola
76'
R. Sappinen normal goal
1 - 3
78'
M. Retegui ↔ B. Cristante Substitution
78'
N. Barella ↔ D. Frattesi Substitution
83'
R. R. Shein ↔ K. Mustmaa Substitution
84'
Andrea Cambiaso yellow card
87'
Vlasiy Sinyavskiy yellow card