Lorient
Ligue 1
FT
2
-
0
Marseille
League: Ligue 1
Venue: Stade du Moustoir
Referee: E. Wattellier
Lorient
Match Timeline
Marseille
Main Prediction
Away Win
Confidence 100%
1X2
1X2
Away Win
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability Model
Home
44.2%
X
0%
Away
55.8%
1X
44.2%
X2
55.8%
12
100%
Tactical Setup
Lorient formation
3-4-2-1
Marseille formation
4-2-3-1
Lorient missing
5
Marseille missing
4
Key Squad Notes
Lorient scorers
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (8 goals), Pablo Pagis (8 goals), A. Tosin (4 goals)
Lorient creators
A. Kouassi (6 assists), Bamo Meรฏtรฉ (3 assists), Pablo Pagis (2 assists)
Lorient key absences
M. Talbi, I. Toure, M. Bamba
Lorient suspended
A. Kouassi
Marseille scorers
M. Greenwood (15 goals), P. Aubameyang (9 goals), A. Gouiri (7 goals)
Marseille creators
M. Greenwood (6 assists), P. Aubameyang (5 assists), Igor Paixรฃo (5 assists)
Marseille key absences
N. Aguerd, G. Kondogbia, C. Egan-Riley
Marseille suspended
F. Medina
Head-to-Head Snapshot
Lorient and Marseille have faced each other 5 times recently.
Quick Insight
1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Lorient 3-4-2-1 / Marseille 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lorient 5, Marseille 4
H2H summary: Lorient wins 1, draws 1, Marseille wins 3
Match Analysis
Lorient sit 9 with 38 points after 29 league matches. The record of 9 wins, 11 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 38:44 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (8 goals), Pablo Pagis (8 goals), A. Tosin (4 goals), with creative support from A. Kouassi (6 assists), Bamo Meรฏtรฉ (3 assists), Pablo Pagis (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without M. Talbi, I. Toure, M. Bamba, A. Kouassi, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.
Marseille come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 52 points after 29 matches. They have recorded 16 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a 58:38 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on M. Greenwood (15 goals), P. Aubameyang (9 goals), A. Gouiri (7 goals), with creative support from M. Greenwood (6 assists), P. Aubameyang (5 assists), Igor Paixรฃo (5 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with N. Aguerd, G. Kondogbia, C. Egan-Riley, F. Medina unavailable.
This match looks like a contest between Marseille's more proactive style and Lorient's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lorient expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Marseille in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Marseille having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Marseille. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Statistics
Lorient
Stat
Marseille
4
Shots on Goal
2
6
Shots off Goal
13
11
Total Shots
16
1
Blocked Shots
1
5
Shots insidebox
11
6
Shots outsidebox
5
6
Fouls
10
1
Corner Kicks
7
2
Offsides
0
43%
Ball Possession
57%
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
382
Total passes
485
318
Passes accurate
426
83%
Passes %
88%
1.33
expected_goals
1.65
0
goals_prevented
0
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2
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1
1
D
21.03.26
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Lorient
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0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lens
2
1
W
08.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lille
1
1
D
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Lineups
Lorient
Formation
Marseille
38
Y. Mvogo
5
B. Meite
32
N. Adjei
25
A. Faye
77
P. Katseris
62
A. Avom
8
N. Cadiou
44
D. Yongwa
17
J. Makengo
12
B. Dieng
10
P. Pagis
1
G. Rulli
28
B. Pavard
5
L. Balerdi
33
Emerson
20
H. J. Traore
23
P. Hojbjerg
8
H. Abdelli
14
I. Paixao
10
M. Greenwood
9
A. Gouiri
17
P. Aubameyang
Lorient
3-4-3
Starting XI
38
Y. Mvogo
G
5
B. Meite
D
32
N. Adjei
D
25
A. Faye
D
77
P. Katseris
M
โฝ 28'
โ 82'
62
A. Avom
M
8
N. Cadiou
M
44
D. Yongwa
M
17
J. Makengo
F
โ 69'
12
B. Dieng
F
โฝ 58'
โ 75'
10
P. Pagis
F
๐ฏ 58'
โ 82'
Substitutes
21
B. Kamara
G
6
L. Abergel
M
โ 69'
2
Igor Silva
D
โ 82'
29
D. Karim
M
35
D. Semedo
M
97
S. Siba
D
15
A. Tosin
F
โ 75'
7
B. Fadiga
M
28
S. Soumano
F
โ 82'
Marseille
3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
G. Rulli
G
28
B. Pavard
D
๐จ 57'
5
L. Balerdi
D
33
Emerson
D
20
H. J. Traore
M
23
P. Hojbjerg
M
โ 76'
8
H. Abdelli
M
โ 59'
14
I. Paixao
M
โ 46'
10
M. Greenwood
F
9
A. Gouiri
F
โ 59'
17
P. Aubameyang
F
โ 76'
Substitutes
12
J. De Lange
G
11
E. Nwaneri
M
โ 59'
26
B. Nadir
M
โ 59'
๐จ 74'
18
A. Vermeeren
M
โ 76'
72
H. Hamzaoui
D
78
E. Lago
F
71
N. Kamissoko
M
35
U. Lamare El Kadmiri
F
โ 76'
22
T. Weah
F
โ 46'
๐จ 90'
Missing Players
Lorient
5 missing
-
M. Talbi
OUT
Missing Fixture
Calf Injury
-
I. Toure
OUT
Missing Fixture
Knee Injury
-
M. Bamba
OUT
Missing Fixture
Injury
-
A. Kouassi
OUT
Missing Fixture
Yellow Cards
-
T. Le Bris
OUT
Missing Fixture
Knee Injury
Marseille
4 missing
-
N. Aguerd
OUT
Missing Fixture
Groin Injury
-
G. Kondogbia
OUT
Questionable
Thigh Injury
-
C. Egan-Riley
OUT
Questionable
Injury
-
F. Medina
OUT
Missing Fixture
Yellow Cards
Head to Head
Lorient vs Marseille
5 matches
18.04.2026
Lorient 2 - 0 Marseille
FT
Ligue 1
12.09.2025
Marseille 4 - 0 Lorient
FT
Ligue 1
12.05.2024
Marseille 3 - 1 Lorient
FT
Ligue 1
10.12.2023
Lorient 2 - 4 Marseille
FT
Ligue 1
09.04.2023
Lorient 0 - 0 Marseille
FT
Ligue 1