Derby
Championship
NS
--.--.---- --:--
Pride Park
Referee: S. Allison
Oxford United
League: Championship
Venue: Pride Park
Referee: S. Allison
Main Prediction

Home Win

Confidence 91.8%
1X2
1X2
Home Win
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5

Probability Model

Home 69.9%
X 8.2%
Away 21.9%
1X 78.1%
X2 30.1%
12 91.8%

Tactical Setup

Derby formation 4-2-3-1
Oxford United formation 4-2-3-1
Derby missing 3
Oxford United missing 3

Key Squad Notes

Derby scorers C. Morris (12 goals), P. Agyemang (10 goals), B. Brereton Diaz (7 goals)
Derby creators J. Ward (7 assists), C. Elder (5 assists), P. Agyemang (3 assists)
Derby key absences C. Elder, J. Widell Zetterstrom, B. Clark
Oxford United scorers W. Lankshear (9 goals), C. Brannagan (6 goals), Ciaron Brown (3 goals)
Oxford United creators B. De Keersmaecker (5 assists), M. Helik (4 assists), C. Brannagan (3 assists)
Oxford United key absences B. De Keersmaecker, T. Goodrham, G. Leigh

Head-to-Head Snapshot

Derby and Oxford United have faced each other 5 times recently.

Quick Insight

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Derby 4-2-3-1 / Oxford United 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Derby 3, Oxford United 3
H2H summary: Derby wins 1, draws 2, Oxford United wins 2

Match Analysis

Derby sit 8 with 63 points after 42 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 18 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, while the 61:53 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Morris (12 goals), P. Agyemang (10 goals), B. Brereton Diaz (7 goals), with creative support from J. Ward (7 assists), C. Elder (5 assists), P. Agyemang (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without C. Elder, J. Widell Zetterstrom, B. Clark, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.
With 44 points from 42 games and a place of 22, Oxford United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 10 wins, 14 draws, and 18 defeats with a 41:54 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on W. Lankshear (9 goals), C. Brannagan (6 goals), Ciaron Brown (3 goals), with creative support from B. De Keersmaecker (5 assists), M. Helik (4 assists), C. Brannagan (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without B. De Keersmaecker, T. Goodrham, G. Leigh, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.
From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Derby's more proactive style and Oxford United's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Derby arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 63 points compared to Oxford United in 22 on 44, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Oxford United. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.
Last matches: Derby
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
Show more matches ⌄
Last matches: Oxford United
11.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Watford
2
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Portsmouth
2
2
D
03.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Hull City
1
1
D
21.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Southampton
0
2
L
14.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Charlton
1
1
D
Show more matches ⌄
Last matches: Derby
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
14.02.26
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
0
W
Show more matches ⌄
Last matches: Oxford United
06.04.26
Cha
Oxford United
Portsmouth
2
2
D
21.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Southampton
0
2
L
06.03.26
Cha
Oxford United
Preston
3
1
W
25.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Stoke City
1
2
L
21.02.26
Cha
Oxford United
Middlesbrough
0
0
D
Show more matches ⌄

Lineups

Derby
Formation
Oxford United
Jacob Widell Zetterström
1
Jacob Widell Zetterström
Joe Ward
23
Joe Ward
Dion Sanderson
28
Dion Sanderson
Matt Clarke
5
Matt Clarke
Derry Murkin
2
Derry Murkin
Lewis Travis
27
Lewis Travis
David Ozoh
18
David Ozoh
Jaydon Banel
34
Jaydon Banel
Sammie Szmodics
19
Sammie Szmodics
Ben Brereton Díaz
25
Ben Brereton Díaz
Carlton Morris
9
Carlton Morris
Jamie Cumming
1
Jamie Cumming
Sam Long
2
Sam Long
Michal Helik
6
Michal Helik
Ciaron Brown
3
Ciaron Brown
Brodie Spencer
15
Brodie Spencer
Yunus Konak
5
Yunus Konak
Cameron Brannagan
8
Cameron Brannagan
Stanley Mills
17
Stanley Mills
Jamie Donley
33
Jamie Donley
Myles Peart-Harris
44
Myles Peart-Harris
Will Lankshear
27
Will Lankshear
Derby 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Jacob Widell Zetterström
G
23
Joe Ward
D
28
Dion Sanderson
D
5
Matt Clarke
D
2
Derry Murkin
D
27
Lewis Travis
M
18
David Ozoh
M
34
Jaydon Banel
M
19
Sammie Szmodics
M
25
Ben Brereton Díaz
M
9
Carlton Morris
F
Substitutes
31
Josh Vickers
G
6
Sondre Langås
D
4
Danny Batth
D
3
Craig Forsyth
D
22
Max Johnston
D
29
Oscar Fraulo
M
37
Owen Eames
M
54
Cruz Allen
M
15
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
F
Oxford United 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Jamie Cumming
G
2
Sam Long
D
6
Michal Helik
D
3
Ciaron Brown
D
15
Brodie Spencer
D
5
Yunus Konak
M
8
Cameron Brannagan
M
17
Stanley Mills
M
33
Jamie Donley
M
44
Myles Peart-Harris
M
27
Will Lankshear
F
Substitutes
21
Matt Ingram
G
24
Hidde ter Avest
D
37
Christ Makosso
D
4
Will Vaulks
M
38
Jamie McDonnell
M
32
Jin-woo Jeon
M
10
Aidomo Emakhu
F
11
Ole Romeny
F
9
Mark Harris
F

Missing Players

Derby 3 missing
-
C. Elder
Questionable Toe Injury
OUT
-
J. Widell Zetterstrom
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
B. Clark
Questionable Injury
OUT
Oxford United 3 missing
-
B. De Keersmaecker
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
T. Goodrham
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
G. Leigh
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT

Head to Head

Derby vs Oxford United 5 matches
18.10.2025
Oxford United 1 - 0 Derby
Championship
FT
11.02.2025
Derby 0 - 0 Oxford United
Championship
FT
22.10.2024
Oxford United 1 - 1 Derby
Championship
FT
29.12.2023
Oxford United 2 - 3 Derby
League One
FT
15.08.2023
Derby 1 - 2 Oxford United
League One
FT