Mantova
Serie B
FT
0 - 2
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Referee: A. Calzavara
Avellino
League: Serie B
Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli
Referee: A. Calzavara
Mantova
Match Timeline
Avellino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
πŸ”„
46'
A. Fontanarosa ↔ F. Missori
Avellino
πŸ”„
46'
T. Biasci ↔ P. Enrici
Avellino
πŸ”„
57'
F. Ruocco ↔ N. Buso
Mantova
πŸ”„
57'
T. Maggioni ↔ N. Radaelli
Mantova
⚽
63'
F. Missori Β· Assist: L. Palmiero
Avellino
πŸ”„
68'
C. Patierno ↔ A. Favilli
Avellino
πŸ”„
75'
R. Russo ↔ G. Tutino
Avellino
πŸ”„
76'
A. Castellini ↔ T. Marras
Mantova
πŸ”„
76'
M. Palumbo ↔ M. Besaggio
Avellino
πŸ”„
81'
D. Wieser ↔ C. Falletti
Mantova
⚽
86'
A. Favilli Β· Assist: A. Izzo
Avellino
🟨
90+3'
Ali DembΓ©lΓ©
Mantova
Main Prediction

Home Win

Confidence 93.3%
1X2
1X2
Home Win
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5

Probability Model

Home 77.2%
X 6.7%
Away 16.1%
1X 83.9%
X2 22.8%
12 93.3%

Tactical Setup

Mantova formation 3-4-2-1
Avellino formation 4-3-1-2
Mantova missing 0
Avellino missing 0

Key Squad Notes

Mantova scorers F. Ruocco (7 goals), L. Mancuso (7 goals), D. Bragantini (6 goals)
Mantova creators Simone Trimboli (5 assists), NicolΓ² Radaelli (4 assists), Federico Artioli (2 assists)
Avellino scorers Tommaso Biasci (12 goals), Lorenco Šimić (4 goals), R. Russo (4 goals)
Avellino creators D. Sounas (4 assists), Tommaso Biasci (3 assists), R. Russo (3 assists)

Head-to-Head Snapshot

Mantova and Avellino have faced each other 2 times recently.

Quick Insight

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.3%)
Predicted formations: Mantova 3-4-2-1 / Avellino 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Mantova wins 0, draws 1, Avellino wins 1

Match Analysis

Mantova sit 11 with 40 points after 34 league matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses with goals at 39:48 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by F. Ruocco (7 goals), L. Mancuso (7 goals), D. Bragantini (6 goals), with creative support from Simone Trimboli (5 assists), NicolΓ² Radaelli (4 assists), Federico Artioli (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.
From their first 34 matches, Avellino have collected 40 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Their overall return of 10 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 38:54 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tommaso Biasci (12 goals), Lorenco Šimić (4 goals), R. Russo (4 goals), with creative support from D. Sounas (4 assists), Tommaso Biasci (3 assists), R. Russo (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.
This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Avellino. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mantova expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Avellino in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Avellino having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Statistics

Mantova Stat Avellino
3 Shots on Goal 3
3 Shots off Goal 2
12 Total Shots 6
6 Blocked Shots 1
9 Shots insidebox 2
3 Shots outsidebox 4
18 Fouls 12
10 Corner Kicks 2
0 Offsides 3
66% Ball Possession 34%
1 Yellow Cards 0
0 Red Cards 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
562 Total passes 300
468 Passes accurate 213
83% Passes % 71%
1.39 expected_goals 0.36
0 goals_prevented 0
Last matches: Mantova
12.04.26
Ser
Mantova
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2
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Virtus Entella
1
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Modena
1
2
L
17.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Cesena
3
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Empoli
2
2
D
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Last matches: Avellino
11.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Palermo
0
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sampdoria
1
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sudtirol
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Virtus Entella
2
1
W
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Last matches: Mantova
06.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Virtus Entella
1
0
W
17.03.26
Ser
Mantova
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3
0
W
08.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Juve Stabia
2
0
W
01.03.26
Ser
Mantova
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1
1
D
21.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Sampdoria
2
1
W
Show more matches βŒ„
Last matches: Avellino
05.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Palermo
0
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sampdoria
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Virtus Entella
2
1
W
03.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Venezia
0
4
L
22.02.26
Ser
Avellino
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1
1
D
Show more matches βŒ„

Lineups

Mantova
Formation
Avellino
6.5
F. Bardi
24
F. Bardi
7.5
A. Dembele
3
A. Dembele
6.9
S. Cella
29
S. Cella
6.9
A. Castellini
27
↓
A. Castellini
6.5
T. Maggioni
96
↓
T. Maggioni
6.7
R. Kouda
80
R. Kouda
6.3
D. Wieser
10
↓
D. Wieser
6.9
F. Benaissa-Yahia
50
F. Benaissa-Yahia
7.7
D. Bragantini
30
D. Bragantini
6.2
F. Ruocco
19
↓
F. Ruocco
6.5
L. Mancuso
9
L. Mancuso
8.0
A. Iannarilli
1
A. Iannarilli
6.9
T. Cancellotti
29
T. Cancellotti
7.7
L. Simic
44
L. Simic
7.9
A. Izzo
4
🎯
A. Izzo
6.5
A. Fontanarosa
63
↓
A. Fontanarosa
7.7
L. Palmiero
6
🎯
L. Palmiero
6.7
M. Palumbo
20
↓
M. Palumbo
7.5
D. Sounas
24
D. Sounas
6.2
T. Biasci
14
↓
T. Biasci
6.0
C. Patierno
9
↓
C. Patierno
6.6
R. Russo
10
↓
R. Russo
Mantova 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
24
F. Bardi
G
3
A. Dembele
🟨 90+3'
D
29
S. Cella
D
27
A. Castellini
↓ 76'
D
96
T. Maggioni
↓ 57'
M
80
R. Kouda
M
10
D. Wieser
↓ 81'
M
50
F. Benaissa-Yahia
M
30
D. Bragantini
F
19
F. Ruocco
↓ 57'
F
9
L. Mancuso
F
Substitutes
22
L. Andrenacci
G
34
A. Vukovic
G
18
C. Falletti
↑ 81'
M
77
N. Buso
↑ 57'
F
98
F. Zuccon
M
17
N. Radaelli
↑ 57'
D
23
T. Marras
↑ 76'
F
5
K. Chrysopoulos
D
36
F. Paoletti
M
28
M. Caprini
F
33
C. Marai
D
Avellino 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
1
A. Iannarilli
G
29
T. Cancellotti
D
44
L. Simic
D
4
A. Izzo
🎯 86'
D
63
A. Fontanarosa
↓ 46'
D
6
L. Palmiero
🎯 63'
M
20
M. Palumbo
↓ 76'
M
24
D. Sounas
M
14
T. Biasci
↓ 46'
M
9
C. Patierno
↓ 68'
F
10
R. Russo
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
30
G. Daffara
G
99
A. Favilli
⚽ 86' ↑ 68'
F
8
L. Pandolfi
F
39
M. Besaggio
↑ 76'
M
2
F. Missori
⚽ 63' ↑ 46'
D
27
A. Le Borgne
M
21
M. Armellino
M
7
G. Tutino
↑ 75'
F
94
R. Insigne
F
3
M. Sala
D
56
P. Enrici
↑ 46'
D
16
J. Kumi
M

Head to Head

Mantova vs Avellino 2 matches
18.04.2026
Mantova 0 - 2 Avellino
Serie B
FT
04.10.2025
Avellino 0 - 0 Mantova
Serie B
FT