Nacional
Primeira Liga
FT
1 - 0
Estรกdio da Madeira
Referee: M. Nogueira
Alverca
League: Primeira Liga
Venue: Estรกdio da Madeira
Referee: M. Nogueira
Nacional
Match Timeline
Alverca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
๐ŸŸจ
38'
Rhaldney
Alverca
๐Ÿ”„
46'
Rhaldney โ†” D. Gui
Alverca
๐Ÿ”„
63'
Daniel Junior โ†” F. Soares
Nacional
โšฝ
67'
J. Ramirez ยท Assist: Jose Gomes
Nacional
๐Ÿ”„
75'
Sandro Lima โ†” Marezi
Alverca
๐Ÿ”„
75'
Figueiredo โ†” M. Clairicia
Alverca
๐Ÿ”„
75'
Lincoln โ†” V. Moreira
Alverca
๐ŸŸจ
78'
Chiheb Labidi
Nacional
๐ŸŸจ
87'
Gabriel Veron
Nacional
๐Ÿ”„
87'
Gabriel Veron โ†” Matheus Dias
Nacional
๐Ÿ”„
88'
Chiquinho โ†” Z. Kassary
Alverca
๐Ÿ”„
90+3'
Liziero โ†” J. Aurelio
Nacional
๐Ÿ”„
90+3'
J. Ramirez โ†” Pablo Ruan
Nacional
Main Prediction

Away Win

Confidence 84.9%
1X2
1X2
Away Win
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5

Probability Model

Home 23.5%
X 15.2%
Away 61.4%
1X 38.6%
X2 76.5%
12 84.9%

Tactical Setup

Nacional formation 4-3-3
Alverca formation 3-4-3
Nacional missing 0
Alverca missing 0

Key Squad Notes

Nacional scorers Jesรบs Ramรญrez (14 goals), Paulinho Bรณia (4 goals), Ze Vitor (4 goals)
Nacional creators Jose Gomes (4 assists), Liziero (4 assists), Paulinho Bรณia (2 assists)
Alverca scorers Marezi (8 goals), Figueiredo (5 goals), Sandro Lima (5 goals)
Alverca creators Lincoln (5 assists), Chiquinho (3 assists), Nabil Touaizi (3 assists)

Head-to-Head Snapshot

Nacional and Alverca have faced each other 2 times recently.

Quick Insight

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.9%)
Predicted formations: Nacional 4-3-3 / Alverca 3-4-3
H2H summary: Nacional wins 1, draws 0, Alverca wins 1

Match Analysis

Nacional approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 25 points from 29 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 31:41, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jesรบs Ramรญrez (14 goals), Paulinho Bรณia (4 goals), Ze Vitor (4 goals), with creative support from Jose Gomes (4 assists), Liziero (4 assists), Paulinho Bรณia (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
So far, Alverca have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 35 points from 29 matches. The record of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 32:47 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marezi (8 goals), Figueiredo (5 goals), Sandro Lima (5 goals), with creative support from Lincoln (5 assists), Chiquinho (3 assists), Nabil Touaizi (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Alverca. Nacional have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nacional expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Alverca in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alverca having the stronger overall control.

Statistics

Nacional Stat Alverca
6 Shots on Goal 4
4 Shots off Goal 2
10 Total Shots 8
0 Blocked Shots 2
6 Shots insidebox 5
4 Shots outsidebox 3
15 Fouls 15
4 Corner Kicks 8
0 Offsides 1
50% Ball Possession 50%
2 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 0
4 Goalkeeper Saves 5
402 Total passes 394
323 Passes accurate 319
80% Passes % 81%
1.03 expected_goals 0.47
0 goals_prevented 0
Last matches: Nacional
12.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Benfica
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Famalicao
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Moreirense
1
1
D
Show more matches โŒ„
Last matches: Alverca
12.04.26
Pri
Alverca
Casa Pia
3
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
Alverca
Rio Ave
2
1
W
22.03.26
Pri
Alverca
Sporting CP
1
4
L
14.03.26
Pri
Alverca
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
07.03.26
Pri
Alverca
AVS
0
0
D
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Last matches: Nacional
04.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pri
Nacional
SC Braga
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Casa Pia
0
0
D
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Last matches: Alverca
04.04.26
Pri
Alverca
Rio Ave
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pri
Alverca
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Alverca
Guimaraes
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pri
Alverca
Tondela
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Alverca
Benfica
1
2
L
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Lineups

Nacional
Formation
Alverca
6.9
Kaique Pereira
1
Kaique Pereira
7.6
A. Nunez
16
A. Nunez
7.6
C. Goncalves
33
C. Goncalves
7.6
Ze Vitor
38
Ze Vitor
7.3
Jose Gomes
5
๐ŸŽฏ
Jose Gomes
6.7
Daniel Junior
10
โ†“
Daniel Junior
6.6
C. Labidi
15
C. Labidi
7.5
Liziero
28
โ†“
Liziero
7.0
Gabriel Veron
27
โ†“
Gabriel Veron
7.9
J. Ramirez
9
โšฝ โ†“
J. Ramirez
6.7
Paulinho Boia
11
Paulinho Boia
7.0
Matheus Mendes
31
Matheus Mendes
7.2
Naves
4
Naves
6.0
S. Gomez
5
S. Gomez
6.7
B. Meupiyou
33
B. Meupiyou
6.5
N. Touaizi
2
N. Touaizi
6.2
Rhaldney
26
โ†“
Rhaldney
6.9
Lincoln
18
โ†“
Lincoln
6.2
I. James
12
I. James
6.2
Figueiredo
20
โ†“
Figueiredo
6.0
Sandro Lima
91
โ†“
Sandro Lima
6.6
Chiquinho
10
โ†“
Chiquinho
Nacional 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Kaique Pereira
G
16
A. Nunez
D
33
C. Goncalves
D
38
Ze Vitor
D
5
Jose Gomes
๐ŸŽฏ 67'
D
10
Daniel Junior
โ†“ 63'
M
15
C. Labidi
๐ŸŸจ 78'
M
28
Liziero
โ†“ 90+3'
M
27
Gabriel Veron
โ†“ 87' ๐ŸŸจ 87'
F
9
J. Ramirez
โšฝ 67' โ†“ 90+3'
F
11
Paulinho Boia
F
Substitutes
50
K. V. Medeiros de Freitas
G
2
J. Aurelio
โ†‘ 90+3'
D
19
L. Joao
F
7
Witi
F
22
F. Soares
โ†‘ 63'
M
6
Matheus Dias
โ†‘ 87'
M
30
Watts
M
26
J. Silva
M
99
Pablo Ruan
โ†‘ 90+3'
F
Alverca 3-4-3
Starting XI
31
Matheus Mendes
G
4
Naves
D
5
S. Gomez
D
33
B. Meupiyou
D
2
N. Touaizi
M
26
Rhaldney
โ†“ 46' ๐ŸŸจ 38'
M
18
Lincoln
โ†“ 75'
M
12
I. James
M
20
Figueiredo
โ†“ 75'
F
91
Sandro Lima
โ†“ 75'
F
10
Chiquinho
โ†“ 88'
F
Substitutes
1
Mateus Oliveira
G
9
Marezi
โ†‘ 75'
F
19
M. Clairicia
โ†‘ 75'
F
82
D. Spencer
D
11
C. Nuozzi
F
14
S. Baseya
D
17
V. Moreira
โ†‘ 75'
M
6
D. Gui
โ†‘ 46'
M
35
Z. Kassary
โ†‘ 88'
M

Head to Head

Nacional vs Alverca 2 matches
18.04.2026
Nacional 1 - 0 Alverca
Primeira Liga
FT
07.12.2025
Alverca 1 - 0 Nacional
Primeira Liga
FT